Ayr Races & Results 1 Thursday 21st September 2023 UK Horse Racing Speed Ratings & Tips

Ayr Races & Results Tomform Thursday 21st September 2023

There were 38 Races on Thursday 21st September 2023 across 5 meetings. There was 8 races at Ayr, 8 races at Yarmouth, 7 races at Pontefract, 8 races at Listowel, 7 races at Chelmsford-City, no doubt Tomform helped you find a winner.

Races & Results Thursday 21st September 2023

The data in the racecards below is for the past year. View the racecard key.

13:20 Ayr Stakes (Class 4) 7f - 11 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form	Odds	Comments
1	6 1st (6) (20/1 -25%) Respectful	20 20/1(-25%)	(6) Respectful 20/1, Ran to a similar level as on debut when fourth of 7 in maiden at Catterick (7f, good, 13/2) 44 days ago. Looks one for handicaps after this. 6l fourth at Catterick last time; further progress is possible but required.
2	3 2nd (3) (5/2 +38%) Individualism	2.5 5/2(+38%)	(3) Individualism 5/2, Too Darn Hot colt who made a promising debut when runner-up at Ayr but failed to build on that when third at Leicester (7f, good to firm, 8/13) 39 days ago. Remains early days so would be folly to rule out. Beaten favourite last time but should do better still; close second over C&D on debut.
3	8 3rd (8) (5/4 -14%) Volterra	1.25 5/4(-14%)	(8) Volterra 5/4, 400,000 gns Farhh colt who shaped very promisingly particularly given signs of inexperience when fourth of 14 in maiden at York (7f, good to firm) on debut 27 days ago. Is sure to progress and looks sure to go close. Promising fourth in the Convivial Maiden at the York Ebor festival; very strong claims.
4	2 4th (2) (5/2 -25%) Colorada Dancer	2.5 5/2(-25%)	(2) Colorada Dancer 5/2, Has finished runner-up on both starts so far, ridden too aggressively at Thirsk (7f, good to soft) 12 days ago. Every chance of going one better here. Runner-up in 7f contests at Sandown and Thirsk; one of the main form contenders.
5th	9 5th (9) (18/1 +18%) Capellina	18 18/1(+18%)	(9) Capellina 18/1, 8/1, showed ability amidst greenness when fourth of 7 in minor event at this C&D (good) on debut 45 days ago, nearest finish after not ideally placed. Should progress. Showed some promise over C&D on debut; open to improvement; possibilities.
6th	11 6th (11) (66/1 -100%) Ready Or Nott	66 66/1(-100%)	(11) Ready Or Nott 66/1, 14/1, showed more than first time up when fifth of 8 in maiden at Musselburgh (7.2f, good to firm) 22 days ago. Another step forward is required. Needs to improve a lot further.
7th	4 7th (4) (28/1 -12%) Inspiring Speeches	28 28/1(-12%)	(4) Inspiring Speeches 28/1, Churchill colt who improved on his debut form whilst still looking to be learning when third at Carlisle (5.8f, good) 3 weeks, finding the penny dropping late on. Open to further improvement upped in trip. Has shown ability in 6f events, while shaping as if 7f will suit.
8th	7 8th (7) (50/1 +0%) This Years Love	50 50/1(+0%)	(7) This Years Love 50/1, 20/1, still very much in need of experience when seventh of 9 in maiden at Ripon (6f, good) 24 days ago. Up in trip. Handicaps more suitable shortly.
9th	5 9th (5) (150/1 +0%) Papagrey	150 150/1(+0%)	(5) Papagrey 150/1, 100/1, showed only greenness when tenth of 11 in minor event at Carlisle (5.8f, good) on debut 3 weeks ago. Up in trip. Achieved little on Carlisle debut.
10th	10 10th (10) (150/1 +0%) Flow So Gently	150 150/1(+0%)	(10) Flow So Gently 150/1, 80/1, knew more than on her debut at the start but didn't settle or get home when ninth of 11 in minor event at Carlisle (5.8f, good) 3 weeks ago. Back up in trip. Comfortably held in both runs.
11th	1 11th (1) (150/1 -127%) Cestrian Spirit	150 150/1(-127%)	(1) Cestrian Spirit 150/1, Bungle Inthejungle gelding who showed only greenness when last of 11 in minor event (28/1) at Haydock (7f, good to firm) on debut just under 6 weeks ago. Will need to take a significant step forward. Inauspicious debut at Haydock, trailing home last of 11.

LTO Selection:

13:20 Ayr Stakes (Class 4) 7f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 4 race.

Kevin Ryan has won the last two renewals of this contest and is fancied to add to his tally with VOLTERRA. Fourth in the typically warm Convivial at York last month, a race which has already thrown up winners, he can improve to strike at the second time of asking. Runner-up on both of his starts, Colorada Dancer is unlikely to be far away, along with the well-related Individualism. Others to note include Capellina and Ready Or Nott.

VOLTERRA shaped very promisingly when fourth in the most valuable maiden in Britain at York last month and, sure to have derived plenty from that initial effort, he's fancied to score second time up for a trainer/owner combination that landed this corresponding event 12 months ago. Colorada Dance has hit the crossbar on both outings so far and he may have to settle for silver yet again, with Individualism another worth keeping a close eye on.

Convivial fourth VOLTERRA is taken to give Kevin Ryan a third consecutive win in this race. Colorada Dancer is second choice.

13:20 Ayr Stakes (Class 4) 7f PREDICTION SIMULATION

13:50 Ayr Stakes (Class 5) 8f - 9 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form	Odds	Comments
1	7 1st (7) (9/2 +0%) Spirit Of Acklam	4.5 9/2(+0%)	(7) Spirit Of Acklam 9/2, Cracksman half-brother to several winners who posted a promising seventh of 14 in maiden (80/1) at York (7f, good to firm) on debut 27 days ago, nearest finish. Can do better. Midfield in valuable maiden at York; ties in with Sisyphean on that bare form.
2	6 2nd (6) (11/10 -51%) Sisyphean	1.1 11/10(-51%)	(6) Sisyphean 11/10, Promising type. 10/1, fifth of 14 in maiden at York (7f, good to firm) on debut 27 days ago, nearest finish. This Dubawi colt looks difficult to oppose with improvement on the way. Clear promise in the Convivial Maiden at York Ebor festival; Group 1 entry; respected.
3	1 3rd (1) (9/4 +32%) Offer And Receive	2.25 9/4(+32%)	(1) Offer And Receive 9/4, Promising individual. 1 win from 1 run this year. Won 8-runner maiden (4/1) at Hamilton (8.3f, good to soft) on debut 27 days ago, well on top finish. Should have more to offer. Scored at Hamilton on debut; one of two major contenders for his owner.
4	2 4th (2) (28/1 -12%) Bust A Move	28 28/1(-12%)	(2) Bust A Move 28/1, Twice-raced maiden. Sixth of 11 in minor event (9/1) at Leicester (7f, good to firm) 29 days ago. More is needed. Needs to improve; yard has a better chance with Spirit Of Acklam.
5th	4 5th (4) (15/2 +66%) Glistening Nights	7.5 15/2(+66%)	(4) Glistening Nights 15/2, Twice-raced maiden. 25/1, fourth of 13 in maiden at Beverley (7.4f, good to firm) 36 days ago, nearest finish. Should progress again. Fourth at Beverley last time; frame possibilities granted a similar effort.
6th	5 6th (5) (66/1 -32%) Made In China	66 66/1(-32%)	(5) Made In China 66/1, Twice-raced maiden. 7/1, 10½ lengths fifth of 8 to Offer And Receive in maiden at Hamilton (8.3f, good to soft) 27 days ago. Has lots to find. Finished about 10l behind Offer And Receive at Hamilton.
7th	3 7th (3) (125/1 -793%) Carvalhal	125 125/1(-793%)	(3) Carvalhal 125/1, Twice-raced maiden. 100/1, sixth of 9 in minor event at Thirsk (7f, good to soft) 34 days ago, missing break. Needs to build on it. Handicaps more suitable shortly.
8th	9 8th (9) (125/1 -25%) King's Angel	125 125/1(-25%)	(9) King's Angel 125/1, 80/1, sixth of 7 in minor event at Thirsk (8f, good to soft) on debut 20 days ago. Major step forward is required. Ran to a poor RPR at Thirsk on debut.
9th	8 9th (8) (66/1 -32%) Tommy's Promise	66 66/1(-32%)	(8) Tommy's Promise 66/1, Foaled May 2. Saxon Warrior gelding. Half-brother to 3 winners, including winner up to 1m Spring Cosmos and 2-y-o 7f winner Miss Laila. Market can guide. Saxon Warrior half-brother to four winners; market can guide.

LTO Selection:

13:50 Ayr Stakes (Class 5) 8f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 5 race.

SISYPHEAN (fifth) had Spirit Of Acklam (seventh) behind when shaping with plenty of promise on his introduction in the Convivial at York and the son of Dubawi is likely to improve plenty for this extra furlong. He is taken to have too much for Offer And Receive, who has to concede 7lb to the selection after his debut victory at Hamilton. Of the remainder, Glistening Nights makes the most appeal after his step forward to finish fourth at Beverley.

Kevin Ryan's Dubawi colt SISYPHEAN looks the way to go on the back of his promising debut York fifth. Spirit of Acklam came in a couple of places behind the selection there and is feared most ahead of Offer And Receive and Glistening Nights.

As in the opener, the Convivial form is being tested. SISYPHEAN gets the vote over Spirit Of Acklam.

13:50 Ayr Stakes (Class 5) 8f PREDICTION SIMULATION

14:25 Ayr Handicap (Class 5) 5f - 21 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form	Odds	Comments
5	5 (5) (25/1 +0%) Paddy's Day	25 25/1(+0%)	(5) Paddy's Day 25/1, 16/1, bit below form fifth of 11 in handicap at Chester (5.1f, good to soft) 19 days ago. Mixed record for current stable but has slipped to a handy mark.
1	17 1st (17) (9/2 +47%) Aconcagua Mountain	4.5 9/2(+47%)	(17) Aconcagua Mountain 9/2, 7/4, creditable second of 10 in handicap at Musselburgh (5f, good to soft) 5 days ago, not clear run. Blinkers back on. Looks competitive on form. Unlucky second at Musselburgh last Saturday; due to go up 2lb in future; good chance.
2	9 2nd (9) (20/1 +20%) So Grateful	20 20/1(+20%)	(9) So Grateful 20/1, Latest win at Pontefract in July. Creditable 2¾ lengths fifth of 12 to American Affair in handicap (14/1) at Carlisle (5.8f, good) 20 days ago. Others more persuasive. Only 1-21 on turf and the success came in lower grade.
3	14 3rd (14) (10/1 +55%) Sixcor	10 10/1(+55%)	(14) Sixcor 10/1, 3-time C&D winner. Latest win at Musselburgh in August. Respectable fifth of 14 in handicap at Redcar (5f, good, 20/1) 2 days ago. Triple C&D winner; however, yet to score above Class 6.
3	4 3rd (4) (11/2 -10%) American Affair	5.5 11/2(-10%)	(4) American Affair 11/2, 11/2, career best when winning 12-runner handicap at Carlisle (5.8f, good) 20 days ago. Can make presence felt. In-form 3yo; won over 6f at Carlisle last time; likely player if coping with return to 5f.
5th	8 5th (8) (22/1 -10%) Northcliff	22 22/1(-10%)	(8) Northcliff 22/1, Remains a maiden after 17 Flat runs. 28/1 and blinkered for 1st time, tenth of 17 in handicap at York (5f, good) 11 days ago. Cheekpieces back on. Exposed maiden who has failed to improve in headgear the last twice.
6th	15 6th (15) (16/1 +36%) One Last Hug	16 16/1(+36%)	(15) One Last Hug 16/1, 4-time course winner. 3 wins from 12 runs this year. Latest win here in July. Last of 10 in handicap at Carlisle (5f, good to firm, 12/1) 14 days ago. Successful three times at Ayr this season; return to this venue is a plus.
7th	11 7th (11) (12/1 -33%) Wee Fat Mac	12 12/1(-33%)	(11) Wee Fat Mac 12/1, C&D winner. Latest win here in August. 9/2, good second of 10 in handicap at Carlisle (5f, good to firm) 14 days ago. Merits consideration. Went close at Carlisle last time; subsequent wind surgery may eke out more from him.
8th	6 8th (6) (10/1 +9%) Honour Your Dreams	10 10/1(+9%)	(6) Honour Your Dreams 10/1, Course winner. Latest win at Hamilton in July. 25/1, thirteenth of 17 in handicap at York (5f, good) 11 days ago. Blinkers on 1st time. Unlucky second at Beverley on most recent start in this grade; new headgear.
9th	12 9th (12) (33/1 -32%) Rajmeister	33 33/1(-32%)	(12) Rajmeister 33/1, Latest win at Redcar in May. 9/1, last of 9 in handicap at Thirsk (5f, good to soft) 55 days ago, lost all chance at start. Visor on 1st time. Chance partly depends on whether he breaks better and takes well to new headgear.
10th	13 10th (13) (16/1 +0%) Triple Jaye	16 16/1(+0%)	(13) Triple Jaye 16/1, C&D winner. Eighth of 10 in handicap (13/2) at Carlisle (5f, good to firm) 14 days ago, slowly away. Defied a 7lb higher mark in this contest 12 months ago; major chance if back in same form.
11th	20 11th (20) (18/1 -50%) Ski Angel	18 18/1(-50%)	(20) Ski Angel 18/1, C&D winner. Winner here in July. 8/1, creditable third of 10 in handicap at Musselburgh (5f, good to soft) 5 days ago. Not far behind Aconcagua Mountain the last twice; still not fully exposed.
12th	7 12th (7) (12/1 -20%) Sir Maxi	12 12/1(-20%)	(7) Sir Maxi 12/1, Latest win at Pontefract in July. 5/2, respectable second of 11 in handicap at Pontefract (6f, good) 32 days ago. Not taken lightly. Has won at up to 7.5f; recent 6f form is decent; drop to 5f is an unknown.
13th	18 13th (18) (33/1 -32%) Bonito Cavalo	33 33/1(-32%)	(18) Bonito Cavalo 33/1, Remains a maiden after 20 Flat runs. Seventh of 10 in handicap (11/2) at Musselburgh (5f, good to soft) 5 days ago. Something to find on form. Behind some of these rivals the last twice and remains a maiden.
14th	16 14th (16) (18/1 -50%) Kraken Power	18 18/1(-50%)	(16) Kraken Power 18/1, 15/2, creditable third of 14 in handicap at Newcastle (6f) 49 days ago. Competitively weighted but it's over three year since sole turf win.
15th	10 15th (10) (10/1 -25%) Ben Macdui	10 10/1(-25%)	(10) Ben Macdui 10/1, Latest win at Newcastle in August. 7/1, creditable third of 12 in handicap at Beverley (5f, good to firm) 19 days ago, just failing. Shortlist material. In great form since having wind surgery, winning on AW then unlucky third at Beverley.
16th	3 16th (3) (22/1 -57%) Refuge	22 22/1(-57%)	(3) Refuge 22/1, Latest win at Haydock in July. Respectable fifth of 11 in handicap (40/1) at Carlisle (5f, good) 20 days ago. Merits consideration. Close second (off 2lb lower) in this race last year; hard to dismiss.
17th	1 17th (1) (25/1 -79%) Sound Of Iona	25 25/1(-79%)	(1) Sound Of Iona 25/1, C&D winner. Twelve runs since last win in 2022. Fifth of 6 in handicap at Hamilton (6f, good to firm, 16/1) 16 days ago, slowly away. Revival is possible; close second off this mark in this contest two years ago.
18th	19 18th (19) (80/1 -220%) Burtonlodge Beauty	80 80/1(-220%)	(19) Burtonlodge Beauty 80/1, One win from 33 Flat runs. Eighteen runs since last win in 2022. 33/1, seventh of 8 in handicap at Hamilton (6f, good to firm) 16 days ago. Plenty to find on form. Inconsistent filly who has a poor strike-rate.
19th	2 19th (2) (17/2 +53%) Borough	8.5 17/2(+53%)	(2) Borough 17/2, C&D winner. Latest win at Hamilton in August. 9/1, tenth of 11 in handicap at Carlisle (5f, good) 20 days ago. Last four attempts on good/softer have resulted in form figures of 1212.
20th	21 20th (21) (125/1 -56%) Bloomin Robbery	125 125/1(-56%)	(21) Bloomin Robbery 125/1, 50/1, last of 10 in handicap at this course (6f, good) 40 days ago. Uphill task. Holds weak claims on overall form and is 6lb out of weights.

LTO Selection:

14:25 Ayr Handicap (Class 5) 5f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 5 race.

Jim Goldie is strongly represented, with his five runners headed by recent Carlisle winner American Affair and Sound Of Iona, who took a small step in the right direction at Hamilton. Ben Macdui didn't get much luck in running at Beverley and commands plenty of respect, but the vote goes to last year's runner-up REFUGE. The six-year-old won off this mark at Haydock in July and he wasn't disgraced when fifth at Carlisle on his latest outing. Ski Angel, Sir Maxi and Borough complete the shortlist.

BEN MACDUI took advantage of his much-reduced mark at Newcastle and was unlucky not to follow up at Beverley, and remains of strong interest. American Affair confirmed he's back on the upgrade when scoring at Carlisle and is next best ahead of Aconcagua Mountain, whose turn isn't far away based on his most recent effort at Musselburgh.

In-form BEN MACDUI (nap) is taken to gain compensation for his unlucky defeat last time. Aconcagua Mountain is second choice.

14:25 Ayr Handicap (Class 5) 5f PREDICTION SIMULATION

15:00 Ayr Handicap (Class 2) 10f - 9 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form	Odds	Comments
1	10 1st (10) (12/1 +52%) Thundering	12 12/1(+52%)	(10) Thundering 12/1, 18/1, last of 14 in handicap at York (10.2f, good to firm) 26 days ago, faltering. Has a fair bit to prove at the moment. Not solid on 2023 evidence and needs to get back to his 3yo best.
2	1 2nd (1) (4/1 +0%) Euchen Glen	4 4/1(+0%)	(1) Euchen Glen 4/1, 4-time course winner. Twenty four runs since last win in 2021. 12/1, twelfth of 14 in handicap at Haydock (14f, good to firm) 12 days ago, slowly away. Down in trip. Had been in good form prior to that, so not totally discounted. Retains a useful level of ability aged ten; has a consistent record at Ayr; could go well.
3	3 3rd (3) (9/2 -50%) Painters Palette	4.5 9/2(-50%)	(3) Painters Palette 9/2, 4 wins from 9 runs this year. Career best when winning 11-runner handicap (9/2) at Wolverhampton (9.5f) 14 days ago, soon clear. Likeable sort who makes plenty of appeal again. Has done well for current connections and is steadily progressive; enters calculations.
4	4 4th (4) (22/1 +0%) Austrian Theory	22 22/1(+0%)	(4) Austrian Theory 22/1, Latest win at Epsom in June. Tenth of 12 in handicap (33/1) at Chester (7.6f, good to soft) 19 days ago. Needs to bounce back and stamina isn't assured. All wins at up to 8.5f; has a question to answer back up in distance.
5th	7 5th (7) (12/1 -60%) Cockalorum	12 12/1(-60%)	(7) Cockalorum 12/1, 3 wins from 7 runs this year. 15/2, won 8-runner handicap at Hamilton (9.2f, good to soft) 38 days ago. Should go well again. Game win at Hamilton; return to higher grade is the negative (0-18 in Class 2).
6th	2 6th (2) (11/2 -10%) Mr Alan	5.5 11/2(-10%)	(2) Mr Alan 11/2, Course winner. Fifth of 6 in handicap at Wolverhampton (12.2f, 2/1), needing stronger gallop. Off 8 months. Capable of making his presence felt if he's fully tuned up. Won maiden here as a 2yo and went close in this race last year; interesting back at Ayr.
7th	6 7th (6) (10/3 +49%) Auld Toon Loon	3.333333 10/3(+49%)	(6) Auld Toon Loon 10/3, Latest win at Chester in July. Respectable fifth of 9 in handicap (5/1) at Sandown (10f, good) 32 days ago. Should give his running once again. Bit disappointing last time but progressive otherwise over 1m2f; player.
5	5 \|PU\| (5) (4/1 +33%) What's The Story	4 4/1(+33%)	(5) What's The Story 4/1, C&D winner. Creditable fourth of 11 in handicap at Wolverhampton (8.6f, 17/2) 14 days ago. Holding form well but he's not the easiest to win with. Has form figures of 2234 for new stable; again has frame possibilities.

LTO Selection:

15:00 Ayr Handicap (Class 2) 10f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 2 race.

WHAT'S THE STORY has been running well in defeat of late and that includes a fourth-placed finish in the Racing League at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. Off a 1lb lower mark here, the nine-year-old could be hard to stop. That said, the progressive Painters Palette is an obvious threat following his success on the same Dunstall Park card, while Euchen Glen and Auld Toon Loon are others who are capable of making the frame.

PAINTERS PALETTE was better than ever when scoring at Wolverhampton a couple of weeks ago and he had something to spare, so he's worth a chance to follow up in an open race. Fellow last-time-out winner Cockalorum is a danger and another solid showing from Auld Toon Loon seems assured.

A chance is taken that MR ALAN will be ready to roll on his belated reappearance. Auld Toon Loon is second choice.

15:00 Ayr Handicap (Class 2) 10f PREDICTION SIMULATION

15:35 Ayr Handicap (Class 4) 10f - 7 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form	Odds	Comments
1	7 1st (7) (11/4 +17%) Alpha Female	2.75 11/4(+17%)	(7) Alpha Female 11/4, Lightly-raced maiden. 17/2, very good second of 8 in handicap at Kempton (11f) 8 days ago, clear of rest. Due to go up 4 lb for that and will surely go close if able to reproduce that form back on turf. Clear second at Kempton last week; due to go up 4lb in future; respected.
2	3 2nd (3) (15/2 -25%) Fiver Friday	7.5 15/2(-25%)	(3) Fiver Friday 15/2, 2/7, career best when winning 4-runner maiden at Musselburgh (9f, good to firm) 23 days ago, easily. That wasn't much of a race but she won as one would expect of a long odds-on shot and she's on a fair mark back in handicap company. Irish filly whose 2lb rise for 15l win in Musselburgh maiden is possibly lenient.
3	2 3rd (2) (10/3 +33%) Bosc Girl	3.333333 10/3(+33%)	(2) Bosc Girl 10/3, 12/1, good fourth of 13 in handicap at York (10.2f, good) 11 days ago. Surely a matter of time before this seven-race maiden gets her head in front and she merits respect. Maiden who should be thereabouts if able to repeat latest effort.
4	5 4th (5) (4/1 -20%) Golden Melody	4 4/1(-20%)	(5) Golden Melody 4/1, Sixteen runs since last win in 2022. Cheekpieces on for 1st time, fourth of 7 in handicap at Ripon (8f, good to firm, 3/1) 16 days ago, nearest finish. This step back up in trip looks a good move and she's a key player. Ties in with Dungar Glory on Ripon running; on a handy mark; possibilities.
5th	6 5th (6) (6/1 +40%) Graces Quest	6 6/1(+40%)	(6) Graces Quest 6/1, Third of 5 in handicap at Musselburgh (12.5f, soft, 11/2) 4 days ago, not ideally placed. Remains 2 lb below last winning mark but others make more appeal all the same. This trip/grade doesn't look the ideal scenario.
6th	4 6th (4) (10/1 -43%) Sophiesticate	10 10/1(-43%)	(4) Sophiesticate 10/1, C&D winner. Latest win at Musselburgh in June. Hooded for 1st time, creditable second of 7 in handicap (14/1) at this C&D (good) 40 days ago, no match for winner. Shouldn't be far away if the hood works equally well second time round. Ran creditably in first-time hood over C&D most recently.
7th	1 7th (1) (10/1 -43%) Dungar Glory	10 10/1(-43%)	(1) Dungar Glory 10/1, Creditable third of 7 in handicap at Ripon (8f, good to firm, 7/1) 16 days ago. Back up in trip and visor on 1st time. Should make her presence felt. Close third at Ripon last time; likely player if taking well to added visor.

LTO Selection:

15:35 Ayr Handicap (Class 4) 10f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 4 race.

Fiver Friday is the obvious starting point and crosses the Irish Sea again on the back of a bloodless Musselburgh triumph. She was getting weight from rivals rated significantly inferior to her, though, and was soundly beaten on her only previous foray into handicap company. Little separated Dungar Glory and Golden Melody when third and fourth at Ripon, but ALPHA FEMALE shaped like her turn was imminent when runner-up at Kempton and Ed de Giles gets her out again before her revised mark comes into effect.

Cases can be made for pretty much all of these but ALPHA FEMALE's claims are the most persuasive on the back of an improved recent effort at Kempton where she was a clear second off this mark. She is due to go up 4 lb for that and gets the nod ahead of Golden Melody, who has posted several creditable efforts in defeat this year and shaped as though the return to this trip would be in her favour when fourth over a mile at Ripon last time. Dungar Glory and Bosc Girl are others to consider.

Kempton runner-up ALPHA FEMALE is taken to go one better. Fiver Friday is second choice.

15:35 Ayr Handicap (Class 4) 10f PREDICTION SIMULATION

16:10 Ayr Handicap (Class 5) 8f - 12 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form	Odds	Comments
1	2 1st (2) (12/1 +14%) Hortzadar	12 12/1(+14%)	(2) Hortzadar 12/1, Seventeen runs since last win in 2022. Last of 13 in handicap at Redcar (8f, good to firm, 28/1) 26 days ago. Cheekpieces back on. Others have achieved more. Hard to predict but dangerously well treated and no surprise were he to stage a revival.
2	3 2nd (3) (28/1 +20%) Ventura Rascal	28 28/1(+20%)	(3) Ventura Rascal 28/1, C&D winner. Tenth of 11 in handicap (20/1) at Pontefract (8f, good) 43 days ago. Tongue strap on 1st time. Makes limited appeal. Out of sorts lately but did win a division of this in 2021; tongue tied first time.
3	10 3rd (10) (8/1 +60%) Black Friday	8 8/1(+60%)	(10) Black Friday 8/1, 4-time course winner. Latest win here in August. 8/1, bit below form fifth of 9 in handicap at Musselburgh (7.2f, good to soft) 5 days ago. Others more persuasive. Scored over 7f here last month but not at his best at Musselburgh since.
4	5 4th (5) (13/2 -86%) Tobetso	6.5 13/2(-86%)	(5) Tobetso 13/2, Winner at Brighton on final start for William Haggas and made a positive start for new connections, following up good second at Haydock (7f) with victory at Ripon (8f, good, 5/1) 23 days ago. Likely contender. Going right way in handicaps; up 4lb for latest Ripon win but could have more to give.
5th	7 5th (7) (4/1 +0%) Hale End	4 4/1(+0%)	(7) Hale End 4/1, Opened account at Hamilton (8.3f) in June and arrives on back of close second of 10 in handicap at Beverley (8.4f, soft) 25 days ago, finishing well. Just 1 lb higher now and holds strong claims. 3yo who was done well since fitted with cheekpieces; should give another good account.
6th	4 6th (4) (15/2 +38%) Albegrey	7.5 15/2(+38%)	(4) Albegrey 15/2, Latest win at Carlisle in June. Eleventh of 12 in handicap (12/1) at Thirsk (7f, good to soft) 12 days ago. Tongue strap on 1st time. Claims on best form. Easy winner on Carlisle return but handicapper in charge since; tongue tied first time.
7th	11 7th (11) (28/1 -75%) Hey Lyla	28 28/1(-75%)	(11) Hey Lyla 28/1, Course winner. Winner here in May. Last of 6 in handicap at Chepstow (8.1f, good to firm, 11/2) 17 days ago. Others more appealing. Won 7f maiden here; 2nd in 1m Newmarket handicap in July but last of six on sole run since.
8th	1 8th (1) (11/1 -10%) Star Shield	11 11/1(-10%)	(1) Star Shield 11/1, C&D winner. Latest win at Wetherby in June. Eleventh of 13 in handicap (16/1) at Thirsk (8f, good to soft) 34 days ago. C&D winner in May; type to bounce back from below-par run latest but Tudhope on Hortzadar.
9th	8 9th (8) (5/1 +0%) Dark Desire	5 5/1(+0%)	(8) Dark Desire 5/1, Lightly-raced winner. 1 win from 3 runs this year. Winner at Haydock in July. Creditable fourth of 13 in handicap at Newbury (7f, good to firm, 6/1) 23 days ago. Warrants respect. Sound start in handicaps when fourth over 7f latest and she's unexposed from good stable.
10th	12 10th (12) (16/1 -14%) Little Ted	16 16/1(-14%)	(12) Little Ted 16/1, Unreliable type. Latest win at Ripon in August. 11/4, third of 5 in handicap at Ripon (10.9f, good) 24 days ago. Back down in trip. Others look better treated. In form lately, including wins over 1m (AW) and 1m2f (turf); ran well over C&D in 2021.
11th	6 11th (6) (25/1 -213%) Tommy G	25 25/1(-213%)	(6) Tommy G 25/1, Not seen since respectable second of 10 in handicap at Musselburgh (8f, good to soft) in April but won this event (off 4 lb lower) 12 months ago and must enter calculations. Off since reappearance second in April but clearly goes well fresh and won this last year.
12th	9 12th (9) (11/2 +27%) Shine On Brendan	5.5 11/2(+27%)	(9) Shine On Brendan 11/2, C&D winner. Latest win at Hamilton in August. 33/1, twelfth of 13 in handicap at Newcastle (8f) 21 days ago. Can give a good account without posing serious threat to principals. Well held on AW latest but in good form on turf prior to that, including two wins; claims.

LTO Selection:

16:10 Ayr Handicap (Class 5) 8f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 5 race.

TOBETSO did just what was required to get off the mark for his current yard in a similar contest at Ripon last month and, with Zak Wheatley more than cancelling out the 4lb higher mark with his claim, this is a good opportunity for the Declan Carroll-trained gelding to strike while the iron is still hot. Dark Desire is another with bags of scope for improvement, while previous winners of this race Tommy G and Ventura Rascal are also dangerous to rule out.

HALE END looked unlucky not to score at Beverley last time and still figures off a handy mark. He makes plenty of appeal. Tobetso and Tommy G head the list of dangers.

Perhaps it's best to narrow this down to the 3yos, with HALE END narrowly preferred to Tobetso.

16:10 Ayr Handicap (Class 5) 8f PREDICTION SIMULATION

16:45 Ayr Handicap (Class 6) 7f - 11 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form	Odds	Comments
1	11 1st (11) (4/1 +20%) Cosa Sara	4 4/1(+20%)	(11) Cosa Sara 4/1, Three-time course winner. Has returned to form last 2 starts, only narrowly denied when second of 6 in handicap at Musselburgh (1m, good to soft, 4/1) 5 days ago. Shortlisted. Won over 1m here in May and beaten a nose off this mark at Musselburgh (1m) on Saturday.
2	2 2nd (2) (4.5/1 +40%) Kalganov	4.5 4.5/1(+40%)	(2) Kalganov 4.5/1, Fifteen runs since last win in 2021. Shaped better than previous outing when third of 15 in handicap (18/1) at Thirsk (7f, soft) 3 days ago, not ideally placed. Capable of getting involved off his current mark. Better signs from falling mark when keeping on for third at Thirsk (7f) on Monday.
3	5 3rd (5) (3.33/1 -141%) Jkr Cobbler	3.33 3.33/1(-141%)	(5) Jkr Cobbler 3.33/1, Completed quick-fire C&D hat-trick when winning 6-runner handicap (7.2f, good, evens) 45 days ago, just having to be kept up to work. Can score again in his current form. Completed a C&D hat-trick in July/August; should make bold bid for four in a row.
4	8 4th (8) (18/1 +0%) Global Humor	18 18/1(+0%)	(8) Global Humor 18/1, Three-time C&D winner, with latest success here in June. 28/1, always behind when fourteenth of 15 in handicap at Catterick (7f, good) 31 days ago. However, could fare better back at this venue. Dual course this summer; below par lately but back on a good mark and could revive.
5th	1 5th (1) (10/1 +29%) Golden Apollo	10 10/1(+29%)	(1) Golden Apollo 10/1, Course winner but still looking for a first success this year, fifteenth of 16 in handicap at Doncaster (7f, good to firm, 20/1) 33 days ago. Lurks on a dangerous mark but needs to step up on what he's shown recently. Mark continues to fall but this 9yo has been well beaten on his last four starts.
6th	10 6th (10) (7/2 +42%) Time To Rumble	3.5 7/2(+42%)	(10) Time To Rumble 7/2, Ran as well as ever when successful here in July. However, not in the same form when fourth of 6 in handicap at Nottingham (8.3f, good to soft, 9/4) 6 weeks ago. Remains on a workable mark. 1m winner here in July; travelled well long way at Nottingham since; respected back at 7f.
7th	9 7th (9) (33/1 +18%) The Caltonian	33 33/1(+18%)	(9) The Caltonian 33/1, After just 7 days off, finished well held when last of 11 in handicap (16/1) at Musselburgh (7.2f, good to firm) 22 days ago. Bounce back called for. Placed twice over 6f here this year but below par over 7f the last twice.
8th	3 8th (3) (33/1 +18%) Gordonstoun	33 33/1(+18%)	(3) Gordonstoun 33/1, Won at Leicester final 2 starts in 2022. After 10 months off, last of 7 in handicap at Carlisle (7.8f, good, 33/1) 20 days ago. Needs to leave reappearance run well behind with visor back on. Won seller/claimer last autumn but not seen again until last at Carlisle three weeks ago.
9th	6 9th (6) (28/1 -12%) Chookie Dunedin	28 28/1(-12%)	(6) Chookie Dunedin 28/1, C&D winner. Seventeen runs since last win in 2022. Below form last 2 starts, eighth of 9 in handicap at Musselburgh (7.2f, good to soft, 40/1) 5 days ago. Last win was over C&D but it was in May 2022 and he was well held at Musselburgh recently.
10th	4 10th (4) (22/1 +45%) Devilwala	22 22/1(+45%)	(4) Devilwala 22/1, Form has gone the wrong way this season, last of 13 in handicap at Thirsk (1m, good to soft, 33/1) 34 days ago. Drops in grade but others more persuasive at present. Third at Thirsk (7f) in June but has trailed home on all four outings since.
11th	7 11th (7) (12/1 -50%) Keep Me Stable	12 12/1(-50%)	(7) Keep Me Stable 12/1, Again ran well when third of 14 in handicap at Carlisle (5.8f, good to firm, 12/1) 2 weeks ago, despite a barely adequate test. Enters calculations as she goes back up in trip. Placed in handicaps over 7f/6f recently and respected as the only 3yo in this field.

LTO Selection:

16:45 Ayr Handicap (Class 6) 7f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 6 race.

Jkr Cobbler is in the form of his life and completed a C&D hat-trick on his most recent appearance. He has been raised another 6lb and, for that reason, a chance can be taken on COSA SARA to spoil the party. Jim Goldie's mare looks to be back on track after her agonising defeat at Musselburgh last week and she has William Pyle claiming 5lb to aid her chances. Kalganov completes the shortlist after his third at Thirsk.

JKR COBBLER has been thriving of late, completing a C&D hat-trick with something to spare last month, and he can continue his progress to add to his tally. Keep Me Stable also arrives in good form and could be the main danger with the return to this longer trip likely to suit, while Cosa Sara can go well again back at this course.

The obvious starting point is JKR COBBLER who got on a roll here in July/August and is taken to extend his winning sequence to four.

16:45 Ayr Handicap (Class 6) 7f PREDICTION SIMULATION

17:17 Ayr Handicap (Class 6) 7f - 11 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form	Odds	Comments
1	5 1st (5) (11/1 +21%) End Zone	11 11/1(+21%)	(5) End Zone 11/1, Latest win at Hamilton in May. 18/1, ninth of 12 in handicap at Ripon (8f, good) 23 days ago. Needs a couple of these to falter. Below best latest and has won only one of his last 23 starts.
2	7 2nd (7) (4/1 -20%) Highfield Viking	4 4/1(-20%)	(7) Highfield Viking 4/1, Winner at Doncaster in April. 11/8, creditable second of 6 in handicap at Catterick (7f, soft) 9 days ago, just failing. Visor on 1st time. Any further rain a positive and he's a leading player. Went close at Catterick (7f, soft) last week; obvious claims, particularly if visor helps.
3	6 3rd (6) (13/2 -44%) Rwenearlytheredad	6.5 13/2(-44%)	(6) Rwenearlytheredad 13/2, 3 wins from 10 runs this year. Career best when winning 9-runner handicap (16/5) at Musselburgh (7.2f, good to firm) 23 days ago. Player again. Third win of year when beating Keep Me Stable (runs in 4.45) at Musselburgh (7f) latest.
4	4 4th (4) (10/3 +33%) Monhammer	3.333333 10/3(+33%)	(4) Monhammer 10/3, C&D winner. Latest win at Musselburgh in July. Good second of 9 in handicap (14/1) at that course (7.2f, good to soft) 5 days ago. Not certain to reproduce that form here but he'll be in the mix if able to do so. Bounced back to form when second off this mark at Musselburgh (7f) on Saturday.
5th	11 5th (11) (40/1 -43%) Earn Your Stripes	40 40/1(-43%)	(11) Earn Your Stripes 40/1, Course winner. Twelve runs since last win in 2022. Fifth of 8 in handicap at Hamilton (6f, good to firm, 16/1) 16 days ago. Must improve. 6f winner here last year but has been performing no more than respectably this season.
6th	8 6th (8) (12/1 +40%) Hoots Toots	12 12/1(+40%)	(8) Hoots Toots 12/1, Latest win at Thirsk in April. Seventh of 10 in handicap (16/1) at Pontefract (8f, good to soft) 53 days ago. Back to last winning mark but others are more persuasive. Out of sorts lately but can't be discounted after returning to mark he won off in April.
7th	2 7th (2) (8/1 -33%) Rory	8 8/1(-33%)	(2) Rory 8/1, Good second of 11 in handicap at Musselburgh (7.2f, good to firm, 7/1) 22 days ago, just failing. Never been the most consistent but rates as a leading player if in same form. Often starts slowly and needs things to fall right but he went close on latest start.
8th	3 8th (3) (9/2 +31%) Cassy O	4.5 9/2(+31%)	(3) Cassy O 9/2, C&D winner. Seventeen runs since last win in 2022. 16/1, found run of good form coming to halt when eighth of 11 in handicap at Thirsk (8f, heavy) 47 days ago. Capable of going close from this mark if shrugging last effort off. Took losing run to 17 when well held last time but has won at this meeting before.
9th	9 9th (9) (16/1 -33%) Merricourt	16 16/1(-33%)	(9) Merricourt 16/1, C&D winner. Eighteen runs since last win in 2022. Ninth of 12 in handicap at Carlisle (7.8f, good to firm, 17/2) 14 days ago. Others make more appeal. Won over C&D in April 2022 but has drawn a blank since.
10th	10 10th (10) (25/1 +11%) Camacho Star	25 25/1(+11%)	(10) Camacho Star 25/1, Won at Catterick in July but has finished well down the field on both outings since. Needs application of cheekpieces to spark revival. Clear with an improver at Catterick in July; well held since but cheekpieces may help.
11th	1 11th (1) (25/1 -213%) Shallow Hal	25 25/1(-213%)	(1) Shallow Hal 25/1, Course winner. Latest win at Carlisle in July. 14/1, ninth of 10 in handicap at Ripon (6f, good) 23 days ago. Up in trip. Needs to bounce back. Popped up off lower turf mark in July but hasn't repeated that in three runs since.

LTO Selection:

17:17 Ayr Handicap (Class 6) 7f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 6 race.

MONHAMMER travelled smoothly into contention before finding just one too strong at Musselburgh on Saturday. He is 1lb well-in today and ought to be more than capable of going one better, though Highfield Viking, who occupied the same position at Catterick last time, can provide a stern challenge. Rwenearlytheredad has been progressive this season and should be thereabouts despite a 3lb rise for his latest victory. Cassy O should not be underestimated either.

HIGHFIELD VIKING's chances would be enhanced further by any additional rain but John Quinn's charge gets the nod anyway, having held his form well since winning at Doncaster earlier in the year. Rwenearlytheredad has built up a fine rapport with Zak Wheatley and that combination are respected again after winning at Musselburgh last time, whilst both Monhammer and Rory should be in the mix if backing up their latest efforts.

Last week's Catterick runner-up HIGHFIELD VIKING might be able to go one better off the same mark.

17:17 Ayr Handicap (Class 6) 7f PREDICTION SIMULATION

Racecard Key

Ths is the racecard key.

Icon	Meaning
	TomForm top stats, gold rated
	TomForm top stats silver rated
	Ran similar race before
S	TomForm fatstest rated speed horse, last time out
T	Top Time speeed rated
	Top Racingpost rated
	At the races watchout for
	At the races top pick
	Top rated for thet statistic

How to use Tomform

Please Watch this short video that will help you learn how to use Tomform.com to filter out the runners and find a winner in each race.

This is the 16:15 Kempton race from the video above backed at 28/1 earlier in the day.

About U.K Horse Racing

Horse racing is a popular and historic sport in the UK, with a tradition dating back centuries. It is a multi-billion pound industry that attracts millions of spectators each year and generates significant economic activity.

There are two main types of horse racing in the UK: flat racing and jump racing. Flat racing is run on a level course and is typically shorter in distance, while jump racing involves horses jumping over obstacles and is generally longer in distance. Both types of racing are popular with spectators and bettors, and they take place at various racetracks throughout the country.

The most famous horse racing event in the UK is the Grand National, which is held annually at Aintree Racecourse in Liverpool. It is a jump racing event that is known for its challenging course and has become a national institution in the UK. Other notable horse racing events in the UK include the Derby, held at Epsom Downs Racecourse in Surrey, and the Royal Ascot, held at Ascot Racecourse in Berkshire.

Horse racing in the UK is regulated by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), which sets rules and standards for the industry. It is responsible for the welfare of racehorses and the safety of jockeys and trainers, as well as ensuring fair and transparent racing practices.

In addition to its economic and cultural importance, horse racing in the UK also plays a significant role in the breeding and training of thoroughbred horses. Many of the world's top thoroughbreds are bred and trained in the UK, and the industry plays a vital role in the preservation and promotion of the breed.

Overall, horse racing is an integral part of British culture and a major contributor to the country's economy. It is a thrilling and exciting sport that continues to attract a loyal following and generate significant interest from spectators and bettors around the world.

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