15:10 Southwell Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) 16f - 13 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form		Odds	Key Rating	Tips	Win %	Place %	Betfair Place %	Dist Win %	Dist Place %	Dist Betfair Place %	Ability Rating	Horse Pace	Prediction	A.I Rating	Movement	ATR Speed	Form Plus	Class Runs	Speed Runs	Speed at Distance	LTO Speed	Top Speed	WSR	TF Rating	Course	Going	Distance	Timespeed	OR	Weight	Runs	Age	Comments
1	1 1st (1) (2/1 +71%) Neigh Botha		2 2/1(+71%)																															(1) Neigh Botha 2/1, Made a successful return over C&D in June and backed it up with a good third at Worcester. Form has dipped since but, on the upside, his mark is on the slide and he's dangerous to discount. Mainly seen over fences these days but retains some aptitude for hurdles; drops in class.
2	5 2nd (5) (11/2 +45%) Runaway Train		5.5 11/2(+45%)																															(5) Runaway Train 11/2, In good hands and shaped pretty well back from a break in an 11-runner Huntingdon maiden hurdle (15.8f, good) earlier this month. Likely to be more at home now pitched into a handicap and he's one to consider. Not shown much so far, but from a successful family and stable in fine form.
3	14 3rd (14) (10/1 -67%) Window Of Time		10 10/1(-67%)																															(14) Window Of Time 10/1, Fair maiden on the Flat in Ireland for Joseph O'Brien and while her form in juvenile hurdles is pretty modest, it's not hard to envisage improvement now that she makes the switch to handicap company. Shortlisted. Placed in last three starts on good ground over hurdles; not dismissed on handicap debut.
4	10 4th (10) (13/2 +80%) Motazzen		6.5 13/2(+80%)																															(10) Motazzen 13/2, Fair winner on the Flat and left previous hurdling form behind when second in first-time blinkers at Uttoxeter (15.8f, good) in July. However, he has failed to build on that since and others boast more compelling credentials. 1-28 in Britain; fair second at Uttoxeter in July, but not built on it since.
5th	8 5th (8) (12/1 +64%) Darting Rose		12 12/1(+64%)																															(8) Darting Rose 12/1, Has hinted at promise on occasions but improvement was not forthcoming on handicap debut at Market Rasen when last seen in June. From a successful family for this stable but off since well held on handicap debut in June.
6th	2 6th (2) (18/1 -50%) Illucidate		18 18/1(-50%)																															(2) Illucidate 18/1, Fair ex-French Flat winner who has shown ability since switched to hurdles, equipped with first-time cheekpieces when fourth of 10 on handicap debut over C&D when last seen in May. Not without each-way hope off this 2 lb lower mark. Ran with credit when fourth over C&D in May, but may need this after seven months off.
7th	9 7th (9) (12/1 +14%) Northern Rose		12 12/1(+14%)																															(9) Northern Rose 12/1, Remains a maiden following a dozen attempts over hurdles but has several solid placed efforts to her name, not least when failing by a whisker at Stratford (18.7f, good) in July. Latest Uttoxeter fifth was decent and she's an each-way player. 0-20 under rules, but twice went close at Stratford in the summer; each-way claims.
8th	7 8th (7) (14/1 -133%) No No Espresso		14 14/1(-133%)																															(7) No No Espresso 14/1, Showed nothing for Charlie Longsdon in 2023 but there were some positives to glean from his debut spin for this yard back from 11 months off at Stratford. Likely to be seen in a better light now venturing down the handicap route and it'll look significant if the market speaks in his favour. Has shown little so far, but open to progress now handicapping.
9th	11 9th (11) (9/1 0%) Three Zambezi's		9 9/1(0%)																															(11) Three Zambezi's 9/1, Placed on the second of 2 starts in Irish points but out with the washing all 3 starts under Rules. Needs to take a big step forward now pitched into a handicap. Beaten a long way in three starts over hurdles last month; may improve now handicapping.
10th	3 10th (3) (14/1 +13%) Danny's Friend		14 14/1(+13%)																															(3) Danny's Friend 14/1, Appeared to take a step forward when fourth of 11 at Stratford on the third of his 3 starts in maiden hurdles. No further progress switched to handicaps the last twice, latterly on debut for new yard at Worcester in July, but he should do better in due course. Has shown ability over hurdles, but not sure dropping in trip is ideal; off five months.
11th	12 11th (12) (14/1 +30%) Secret Sauce		14 14/1(+30%)																															(12) Secret Sauce 14/1, Yet to score over hurdles and was never in the hunt on debut for new yard following a wind op at Fakenham last month. Others preferred. Runner-up at Hereford in January but hasn't matched that effort since.
12th	4 12th (4) (28/1 -75%) Tarbaan		28 28/1(-75%)																															(4) Tarbaan 28/1, Disappointing on the level in 2024 and he has failed to trouble the judge in 3 hurdles starts to date. However, improvement may well be forthcoming now handicapping in this sphere off a very realistic opening mark. Blinkered for the first time over hurdles. Twice well beaten since fairly promising hurdles debut; could bounce back in a handicap.
6	6 |PU| (6) (28/1 -12%) Gainsbourg		28 28/1(-12%)																															(6) Gainsbourg 28/1, Healthy strike rate on the Flat, winner of 6 of his 27 starts on the level, but he hasn't shown much spark in a trio of appearances over hurdles so far. Well beaten in three starts over hurdles but has won six times on the Flat; handicap debut.

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15:10 Southwell Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) 16f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 5 race.

NEIGH BOTHA drops in grade and, having won over the chase course here the last time he contested a class 5 handicap, a bold showing is expected as he bids to break his duck over hurdles. With most of the remainder struggling for form, perhaps Window Of Time can figure prominently given that she gets a three-year-old allowance. Illucidate and Northern Rose complete the shortlist.

Given his solid form on the Flat this year, EARLY MORNING DEW is of strong interest returned to this sphere off a very attractive mark. He gets the nod but there are several who could leave their previous form well behind now handicapping, not least Window of Time, who is second choice. No No Espresso, Tarbaan and Runaway Train (in order of preference) all fall into that category, while top-weight Neigh Botha also needs a mention.

The vote goes to the topweight NEIGH BOTHA. Normally seen over fences these days, he drops to this grade for the very first time.

15:10 Southwell Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) 16f PREDICTION SIMULATION

15:40 Southwell Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) 24f - 6 Run Class & Speed Card

Info	Form		Odds	Key Rating	Tips	Win %	Place %	Betfair Place %	Dist Win %	Dist Place %	Dist Betfair Place %	Ability Rating	Horse Pace	Prediction	A.I Rating	Movement	ATR Speed	Form Plus	Class Runs	Speed Runs	Speed at Distance	LTO Speed	Top Speed	WSR	TF Rating	Course	Going	Distance	Timespeed	OR	Weight	Runs	Age	Comments
1	1 1st (1) (8/13 +49%) Lunar Contact		0.615385 8/13(+49%)																															(1) Lunar Contact 8/13, Fair hurdles form for Alan King in 2022/23. Twice a winner between the flags and on the up over fences, winning a brace of handicaps this autumn. Unchanged mark back over timber and he's a major player. With cheekpieces returning he's gone back-to-back in 3m handicap chases at Fakenham.
2	2 2nd (2) (7/2 +13%) Mrs Tabitha		3.5 7/2(+13%)																															(2) Mrs Tabitha 7/2, Unreliable sort but was running well off the back of a wind op when running out 2 out in handicap hurdle at Huntingdon last month. Looked a bit more straightforward fitted with cheekpieces an Newcastle last time, confirming stamina for this sort of trip in the process. Solid third last time over nearly 3m; needs good ground so recent rain not welcomed.
3	8 3rd (8) (12/1 +64%) Mackie Dee		12 12/1(+64%)																															(8) Mackie Dee 12/1, It's now 14 runs since his last win in 2022 but he posted a very good second of 14 in handicap hurdle at Huntingdon (25f) at the beginning of the month. Well held back there on Saturday, though. Inconsistent and was well beaten at Huntingdon only three days ago.
4	5 4th (5) (9/1 +0%) Bergentown		9 9/1(+0%)																															(5) Bergentown 9/1, On a losing run but he posted a very good second of 11 in handicap hurdle at Southwell (24.3f) last month. Making headway when short of room at Hexham latest so probably still in form. Ex-Irish gelding who is 1-27 overall; did finish second over C&D last month.
5th	4 5th (4) (50/1 -52%) Mystic Man		50 50/1(-52%)																															(4) Mystic Man 50/1, Modest chaser who folded several times for Harry Derham this season. Left that yard cheaply and fared no better back over timber at Sedgefield 12 days ago. 40-1 and pulled up on stable debut in a handicap hurdle at Sedgefield.
6th	7 6th (7) (11/1 +31%) You Say Its Over		11 11/1(+31%)																															(7) You Say Its Over 11/1, Still looking for first success but runner-up 4 times last season. Remote fourth in Uttoxeter novice on reappearance last month and needed to see more back in a handicap last time to seriously consider her. 0-16 but has been runner-up four times and latest Sedgefield effort wasn't too bad.

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15:40 Southwell Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) 24f Race Class Flow

The chart reads from right to left to today's class 5 race.

After a brace of chase wins over 3m at Fakenham, LUNAR CONTACT is an attractive proposition back over hurdles from the same mark as the latest of those two dominant displays. Callum Pritchard retains the ride and switching back to timber looks a canny move by connections. Sedgefield winner Topkapi Star heads the list of dangers, although Bergentown and Mrs Tabitha should also be competitive.

LUNAR CONTACT escapes a penalty for last week's easy Fakenham win and assuming he's as effective over hurdles, he'll take plenty of stopping. Topkapi Star and Getaway With You look to be the chief threats.

Most of these have a lot to prove but LUNAR CONTACT has looked on very good terms with himself over fences.

15:40 Southwell Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) 24f PREDICTION SIMULATION

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Racecard Key

Ths is the racecard key.

Icon	Meaning
	TomForm top stats, gold rated
	TomForm top stats silver rated
	Ran similar race before
S	TomForm fatstest rated speed horse, last time out
T	Top Time speeed rated
	Top Racingpost rated
	At the races watchout for
	At the races top pick
	Top rated for thet statistic

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How to use Tomform

Please Watch this short video that will help you learn how to use Tomform.com to filter out the runners and find a winner in each race.

This is the 16:15 Kempton race from the video above backed at 28/1 earlier in the day.

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